Chagas disease rates fell globally, while the pattern of cases shifted
This abstract-based analysis models declining global rates alongside older case populations and rising prevalence in regions where the disease is not endemic.
Based on the published abstract. The full paper may contain additional methods, results and limitations.
The 30-second takeaway
The estimates suggest that global Chagas disease prevalence, incidence and mortality rates declined over the study period after accounting for population age. Cases also shifted toward older ages, while prevalence rose in non-endemic regions. These modeled population trends do not establish which policies or treatments caused the changes.
Under-reporting and misclassification limit disease estimates. The authors say revised data and methods raised estimates relative to earlier versions, so differences between published estimates do not necessarily indicate a real increase over time.
What researchers found
Global age-standardized Chagas disease prevalence rate
Modeled change from 1990 to 2023, with the earlier year as comparator.
Rates and case counts
Age-standardized rates account for differences in population age when comparing populations or periods. They differ from total case counts: a rate decline does not mean an identical decline in the number of people affected.
How estimates were built
For endemic locations, researchers modeled infection survey data. In non-endemic locations, prevalence estimates used migration patterns and prevalence in countries of origin. That approach makes the estimates dependent on both source data and modeling assumptions.
The original publication
Global, regional, and national burden of Chagas disease, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.
GBD 2023 Chagas Disease and RAISE Study Collaborators
Lancet Infect Dis · 2026
- PubMed ID
- 41202826
- Record checked
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